Trump’s peace plan could finally end the nearly two-year war in Gaza. It could bring home 46 hostages still held by Hamas. But it might also end Benjamin Netanyahu’s career.

Netanyahu accepted the plan on Monday. Now Hamas needs to agree. The deal would end Israel’s military operation. It would disarm Hamas. It would pave the way for Gaza’s reconstruction.

A Palestinian governing body would oversee the work. An international coalition headed by Trump would supervise everything.

Trump called this Netanyahu’s potential “crowning achievement.” But the Israeli prime minister’s acceptance could collapse his government. Or it could somehow save it.

Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition barely survived a push for early elections in June. That could have dissolved his government. Elections are currently set for October 2026.

By July, his government lost its majority in parliament. Two parties withdrew from his coalition. He now controls just 50 of 120 seats.

That’s a dangerous position to be in.

Netanyahu’s party is falling apart from within. Hard-right members are threatening to bring down his government. They oppose any concessions made in the war against Hamas.

John Hannah is a security expert at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. He explained what Netanyahu’s hardliners wanted.

“They thought they were headed toward ‘total victory’ on the battlefield, a full-blown Israeli military occupation, the displacement of millions of Palestinians to the far reaches of the globe, and eventual Israeli resettlement and annexation of Gaza.”

Trump’s plan runs contrary to all those goals.

“This new Trump plan runs contrary to all their end-game objectives — even if, at least on paper, it does promise to meet a lot of Israel’s core war aims in terms of returning all the hostages, disarming Hamas and ending its rule, and thoroughly demilitarizing and deradicalizing Gaza.”

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned in early 2025. He opposed the ceasefire and hostage deal. That deal released 33 hostages. He was reinstated in March.

Ben-Gvir wants to annex Gaza. He wants Israeli settlements there. He wants Hamas completely eliminated.

Trump’s proposal doesn’t specifically create Palestinian statehood. But it blocks Israeli annexation plans. It would grant Hamas “amnesty” and a path out of Gaza if they disarm.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich condemned Trump’s plan on Tuesday. He called it a “resounding diplomatic failure.”

“A closing of eyes and turning our backs on all the lessons of October 7th.”

Smotrich posted his prediction on X.

“In my estimation, it will end in tears. A tragedy of leadership fleeing from the truth.”

Netanyahu faces pressure from multiple sides. His hardliners think he conceded too much on security. The public thinks he hasn’t done enough for hostages.

Many Israelis question Netanyahu’s priorities. Has he put military operations first? Has he prioritized his political ambitions over hostages held for 725 days?

Hannah said Netanyahu had no choice but to accept Trump’s plan. Israel is increasingly isolated globally. Politics at home are unstable.

“It’s absolutely imperative for Israel’s long-term security and, frankly, for Netanyahu’s political future to keep the U.S. and Trump on side.”

Trump is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu is.

Approval ratings show Netanyahu would likely lose if elections happened now.

Richard Goldberg works with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He’s a senior advisor there.

“If you think predicting American elections is hard, you can’t even imagine predicting Israeli elections given its multi-party parliamentary system. In the end, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu appear more focused on substance than politics, with a deal that would get all the hostages out, force Hamas to surrender and protect Israel’s long-term security.”

Public opinion of Netanyahu could change if Hamas accepts the plan. The proposal says hostages would return within 72 hours after joint agreement.

Netanyahu’s chief opposition is Yair Lapid. He’s a former prime minister. He said the biggest threat to the plan is a “yes, but” approach.

“What threatens the plan now is not the people who say ‘no,’ like Ben-Gvir or the Iranians, but the people who say ‘yes, but’. Netanyahu is a seasoned and exhausting expert in ‘yes, but.’ Usually, he says the ‘yes’ in Washington, standing in front of cameras at the White House, feeling like a groundbreaking statesman, and the ‘but’ when he returns home and the ‘base’ reminds him who’s boss.”

Other opposition leaders backed Netanyahu’s agreement. Benny Gantz leads the Blue and White Party. His party would not let politics sabotage the plan.

Goldberg argued the deal is a win for Israel.

“The devil is always in the details, and we are short on details, but from a principles perspective, this would be a clear Israeli victory. When you add on the requirements for demilitarization and deradicalization in Gaza and a fundamental overhaul of the Palestinian Authority, alongside a path to Saudi-Israel normalization, all the topline principles and goals align with Israel’s security interests and war objectives.”

Trump crafted a deal that could end the war. It could bring hostages home. It could reshape the Middle East. But it might end Netanyahu’s political career in the process.